What Happened this Winter – Thoughts and Perspective

By: Zach Butler

As we transition into spring with temperatures warming and snow melting, it is hard to believe what happened this season in the Western United States. The West saw snow drought conditions with record low snow in many areas. Despite the West seeing low snow conditions, the Eastern United States celebrated a good winter with cold temperatures and snowy conditions. Alaska saw a cold winter as well, but it was drier than normal.

The percent of normal snow conditions across the Western US on April 1, 2026. This map averages SNOTELs snow water equivalent (SWE), to create a basin wide percent to normal. The normal period is defined as the median of 1991-2020.

What caused the snow drought?

Snow drought refers to a lack of snow. Drivers of snow drought can either be a lack of precipitation or an increase in temperatures. This winter saw the snow drought caused primarily by the increase in temperatures. Temperatures this winter across the Western US were above normal and some areas saw record warmth.

When precipitation fell this winter, it was primarily as rain due to these above normal temperatures. This raised the rain-snow line, and snow levels were at much higher elevations than the normal.

Below is a look at the precipitation (top) and temperature (bottom) anomaly maps from October 2025 – March 2026.

The Western US as a whole saw roughly ‘normal precipitation’. Some areas were different of course, as observed by the percent of average coloring above. The biggest area to be hit by below normal precipitation was Colorado. Colorado saw a record low snow year, and this is putting strains on the state’s water resources in the coming months.

The percent of normal snow conditions across Colorado. This graph averages all SNOTELs snow water equivalent (SWE) in Colorado, to create a statewide percentage of normal. The normal period is defined as the median of 1991-2020.

A quick research update about the implications of snow drought and how this affects the hydrologic cycle can be explained more in this article. This work was just published as the last part of my PhD, and our study hits home in relation to this winter. Snow drought winters like this year with warmer temperatures are more likely in the future, and this could have significant impacts on the hydrologic cycle in snow dependent systems.Listen to a summary here.

What weather caused the snow drought?

We know that the snow drought in the West was primarily driven by warmer temperatures, but what caused these warmer temperatures?

The warmer temperatures across the West were driven by a shift north of the jet stream and the extension of an upper-level ridge. The best way to view what this means is in the map below.

In the map below, brighter colors (green, yellow, red) indicate upper-level ridging, and darker colors (blue, purple) indicate upper level troughing. The map below is an average of November to February.

This map was created by Alan Smith from OpenSnow, thanks Alan!

This ridge for most of the winter across the West caused the above-normal temperatures. We remember dry January with little to no precipitation, and this was a signal of why we saw such warm conditions this winter. Storms still occurred across the West from time to time, but these storms were often associated with warmer air as the jet stream and cold air moved north into Canada.

Many atmospheric rivers (ARs) affected the West this year and these ARs brought significant precipitation, but again they brought warmer air and shifted the rain-snow line to higher elevations. A noticeable AR storm cycle this winter also brought flooding to Washington in December 2025.

Don’t forget about the East and Alaska

The Eastern US saw a very different snow year to the West. The East saw cooler than normal temperatures and above average snowfall. This was attributed to a dip in the jet stream and frequent troughing over the East which brought favorable snow conditions.

Below is a look at the percent of snowfall compared to normal from September 30, 2025 through April 20, 2026.

The weather in Alaska this winter was similar to the East in that it was colder than normal. Some areas of interior Alaska even saw record cold. Despite this cold air, what Alaska lacked this winter was precipitation. Most of the state saw drier than normal conditions, which lead to below normal snow conditions. When snow fell though, it was fluffy and fun to ski on. A few areas in Alaska did manage to see a snowy winter and this was mainly in Panhandle through Southeast Alaska. 

Below is a look at the temperature anomalies over the past two winters in Alaska and a look at the snow conditions on April 1, 2026.

Graphics above produced by NWS AK Climatologist Brian Brettschneider.

CSO Observations this Winter

Even during low snow years, CSO observations and snow measurements remain critically important. Accurately knowing how much snow is on the ground allows scientists to better predict snowpack conditions, improving estimates of snow water storage and melt timing. This becomes even more important during snow drought years, when water resources are already limited and small errors in snow estimation can have large impacts on water supply forecasts. Reliable observations help water managers anticipate shortages, plan reservoir operations, and make informed decisions for ecosystems and communities that depend on snowmelt.

In these snow drought years, every measurement matters. This is because understanding where snow persists, how quickly it melts, and how much water it contributes can significantly reduce uncertainty in an already stressed system.

Early look to Next Winter

It is never too early to get excited for next winter! How can next winter be worse than this one? That is something on all of our minds and I think there are pretty good odds it cannot get worse than this, at least we hope…

• Early winter forecasts next year indicate favorable conditions for a strong El Niño. 

El Niño can affect the weather patterns across North America differently. Generally it favors a storm track through California and the Southwest, with warmer and drier conditions through the northern tiers of the US into Canada.

Every El Niño is different, and sometimes they can bring large amounts of snow. That is to say, weather forecasts even with high El Niño certainty next year are difficult to predict and we have a long way to go for other types of signals to help predict next winter’s snowfall.

Next year will be better than this winter, right? RIGHT!?!?!

I hope you enjoyed this blog, keep taking CSO measurements as the snow allows. Talk to you next winter!

-Zach